Summary
It is not necessary to stress to readers of The Herald business pages that markets are skittery at present and downside risks seen as substantial and manifold. With the Footsie toying with the 5000 barrier, and currencies gyrating in all directions, the uncertainties are self-evident. Some of my investor friends are really worried about a distinct double-dip to 4000 or below; so it makes sense to see if these perceptions of risks are backed up by the economic story.
As usual, the starting point has to be the latest estimate of overall economic activity. The good news is that the estimate for UK GDP growth for the first quarter of 2010 has been revised up marginally, to 0.3%. While this remains well below past experience and any realistic estimate of trend, at least we have growth and at least the revision was up rather than down.See the full content of this document
Extract
Double Dip Is Unlikely ... But It's a Possibility
There are two "howevers" to be noted at once. First, the balance of this growth is different from that seen in most recovery phases; and second - partially as a consequence of this unusual balance - the likely ...
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