Reading the runes in mixed messages Economic predictions will not matter come the next election Economic predictions will not matter come the next election ANALYSIS

The HeraldJune 30, 2009

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Summary


WE already knew that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) takes a more downbeat view than our own government of the UK's path to recovery from the recent global banking crisis and subsequent recession.

It told us last week, in its multicountry Economic Outlook, that it expects UK output to contract by 4.3per cent this year and do nothing at all in 2010. That compares with Treasury forecasts of a 3.5per cent fall in GDP this year, but resumed growth of 1.25per cent in 2010.

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Reading the runes in mixed messages Economic predictions will not matter come the next election Economic predictions will not matter come the next election ANALYSIS

Unsurprisingly, the OECD sticks to that view that, for the UK, this recession has been "severe" and any recovery "is likely to be slow". There is no monopoly of wisdom in these trubulent economic times. So we shall see whose prediction proves to be ...

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